Starling Davis Real Estate Blog

Realty Check by Richard Courtney

2007-05-01T10:11:00.000-07:00

Realty Check: No need to load truck, move to Beverly Hills
By Richard CourtneyApril 27, 2007
In the 1960s, The Beverly Hillbillies was a popular situation comedy that aired weekly and depicted the lives of a Tennessee family that had discovered oil on their property — becoming millionaires in the process. During that era, no self-respecting millionaire would continue to live in Tennessee, so as the theme song goes, “They loaded up their truck and they moved to Beverly…Hills, that is.”Today, if Jed Clampett were to strike it rich, he could simply move to the Nashville — with no need for Mr. Drysdale. For the area has developed a voracious appetitive for upper-end homes.As more confusing news rolled in from the media this week, a look at the Nashville-area market in upper-end housing is of interest. For those who missed it, a national television company announced that home sales for March were lower than February. Again, while the word “national” sounds similarly to the word “Nashville,” in terms of the real estate market the similarities end with the pronunciations.
In 2005, a year during which the Nashville area recorded record sales and the national market experienced lower sales than it had the previous year, there were 46 homes that sold for $1 million or more between Jan. 1 and April 28. The next year, 2006, national sales dropped again by 16 percent and Nashville set yet another record, with 69 homes sold for more than $1 million for the January-April period.Now let’s take a look at 2007. This year, 72 properties have closed for $1 million or more, the most in the history of the area for this time period. Additionally, there are 77 properties under contract, most of which will close in the next 45 days. In 2005, there were 198 sales for more than $1 million; while in 2006, there were 288, and this year the area is on track to have 360.Once again, the Nashville market continues to defy the national market. There is, however, some sobering news in the local market and that is that there are 461 homes for more than $1 million on the market. That is indeed one “heaping helping.”If sales continue on the current trend, that inventory should be depleted in slightly longer than a year. Sales continue to soar so must inventory. Competition is fierce. All of that should bode for an exciting spring selling season.

Richard Courtney is the principal broker of Fridrich and Clark Realty’s Music Row office.

Condo trend in Nashville

2007-03-12T14:54:00.000-07:00

Realty Check: Viridian flippers strike high-rise gold with resales
By Richard CourtneyMarch 09, 2007
There has been much speculation regarding the “speculators” who invested in Viridian units. While about 260 buyers have nestled into their nests in the big high-rise, others have chosen to sell, or “flip” if you must. The results are beginning to roll in and the investors are favoring very well.For example, according to realtracs.com, Unit 2514 was bought on Dec. 15 for $339,560 and sold on Feb. 28, for $480,000, a gain of $140,440. Unit 2915 was purchased on Dec. 31 for $332,500 and sold on March 8 for $445,000 for a gain of $112,500. Another unit, 2914 was purchased on Feb. 2 for $334,150 and sold Feb. 8 for $440,000 for a gain of $105,850 in only six days. And, Unit 2415 was purchased on Feb. 1 for $348,317 and closed on Feb. 28 for $430,000, a gain of $81,683 in less than a month. And, in the case of the aforementioned Unit 2915, there is another buyer attempting to purchase it at even a higher price.While there are reports of high inventory, and gnashing of teeth, the sales are going very well. Since this is the first building of its kind in Nashville, the local real estate community is cutting its teeth on this project. One lesson that has been learned is that the cliché “location, location, location” holds true in high-rise structures as is does in single-family residences.In the above examples, the units that are numbered 14 and 15 are the big sellers, while others units are taking longer to move and without as large returns. With the 14s and 15s out of the picture, the 12s and 13s become the next to go and so on it seems. There will be more information to come on this development as there seems to be great interest.Mr. Jensen’s pricing psychology Last week, Rory Jensen, a Realtor with Fridrich and Clark Realty’s Music Row office, where I reside by the way, announced a new and interesting finding. Rory is a 24-year-old Realtor who essentially offers 22 years of real estate experience as his father, Mark Jensen, is a crackerjack Realtor in the Albuquerque area. While most Rory’s age are wet behind the ears, Rory is wise beyond his years.Last week, Rory was on Realtracs.com searching for properties in the $150,000 to $200,000 price range. In the area in which he was searching, he was surprised to see the paucity of listings available, especially having heard of the glut of houses on the market. As he found little to show his buyers, he decided to expand the price parameters both higher and lower.After dropping from $150,000 to $140,000, he found 15 listings at $149,000 to $149,999. As is often the case, the Realtors with the “999” listings were attempting “psychological pricing” by having the listing “under $150,000” in order to expose the home to buyers looking to pay less than $150,000. Yet, in actuality, that approach drove away buyers seeking a home priced less than that figure.Rory approached me recommending that I share this information, and I was taken a bit aback as it stands in direct contrast to conventional real estate wisdom. Almost every house placed on the market during the 28 years I have been in real estate has been priced at some number followed by a 900 or a 950, e.g., $129,900 or $499,950, a practice that greatly limits prospects who are likely to begin their search for houses priced in the “000” category, Rory contends.Although his argument to price on “000” seemed accurate, I could not believe it and ran the theory past Christie Wilson, 2006 president of the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors and the principal broker of the Wilson Group. She, too, first thought that it could not be true. But after pondering the idea for several minutes, Christie agreed with the “Jensen Method of Pricing” or JMOP as it will come to be known. From the mouths of babes…

Up swing of market-USA Today

2007-02-16T08:31:00.000-08:00

Realtors expect home price recoveryUpdated 2/16/2007 3:57 AM ET
By Christine Dugas, USA TODAY
Home prices are likely to spring back in the coming months, the National Association of Realtors predicted Thursday after reporting that median prices fell in 73 metro areas in the final three months of 2006.
Last year "was the year of contraction," said David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "When we get the figures for this spring, I expect to see a discernible improvement in both sales and prices."
Even in an overall sluggish fourth quarter, 71 areas had price gains, the NAR said. And 14 of those areas saw double-digit year-over-year percentage gains.
CHARTS: Median home prices in 149 metro areas, home sales by state and metro areas ranked by 5-year appreciation
"At least the bottom appears to have already occurred," says Lawrence Yun, an NAR economist. "It looks like the figures will be improving. Whether or not that will be sustainable is a different question."
Nationwide, the median sales price for an existing single-family home fell to $219,300 in the fourth quarter, down 2.7% from the same period in 2005.
Several once-sizzling markets in Florida continued to see price declines. The Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice area was worst hit; prices fell 18% in the fourth quarter.
Still, the NAR pointed out that despite the recent downturn in prices, gains for typical single-family homes the past five years have been robust in many metro areas — and explosive in others. In Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., for example, prices have soared 155.3% in the past five years.
Other parts of California have yet to benefit. In the inland areas, many builders who are struggling to move new-home inventory have caused prices to fall sharply, says Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist of the California Association of Realtors.
Such price drops, though, are starting to lure buyers, a trend that could help lift the overall housing market. "Buyers are responding to seller pricing and incentives, and there's pent-up demand as a result of buyer hesitation in the second half of 2006," says Pat Vredevoogd Combs, the NAR's president.
Among the areas that reported the biggest gains at the end of last year was Atlantic City, which saw a 25.9% jump in home prices in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period in 2005. And Trenton-Ewing, N.J., enjoyed an 18.9% rise in prices. It could post even better results this year.
"Interest rates remain extremely reasonable, and the buyers are out there and they're buying; they're not just shopping," says Rosalie Daniels, broker-owner of RE/Max TriCounty in Hamilton Township, on the outskirts of Trenton. Written contracts for home sales in January 2007, Daniels says, are 35% ahead of the pace of January 2006.
Low mortgage rates should also help boost sales. The average 30-year fixed rate for 2006 was 6.40%; it's now 6.30%, Freddie Mac said Thursday.

Daily Real Estate News January 30, 2007 Women T...

2007-01-30T10:47:00.000-08:00

Daily Real Estate News January 30, 2007
Women Take Control of Work Schedules
More professional women are remaining in the work force by negotiating flexible work arrangements or choosing an entrepreneurial career path, such as real estate, which gives them more control over their schedules. Not only are women staying in the work force, but those who use flexible work arrangements, such as telecommuting, flexible hours, limited traveling, and evening work, haven’t suffered a loss of income, according to a recent study by Boston’s Simmons School of Management, the nation’s only business school designed for women. Expect More to Follow Suit“Women are shifting the career paradigm and leading the way for how all employees in the future will take more control over managing their careers,” says lead study author, Mary Shapiro, professor of management. “They’re no longer acting as agents of their employers, but as career ‘self-agents,’ using flexible work arrangements and setting their own terms as a way to make ‘work work.’” Study findings are contrary to the popular belief that “women are opting out of the work force in droves,” says Shapiro, noting that this perception is “a myth based on a handful of anecdotes in the popular press.”Rather, she says, the study found that:
More than 90 percent of the women surveyed have used some kind of flexible working arrangement during their career, and 88 percent did so primarily to remain employed full time.
Only 18 percent reported voluntarily leaving the work force at some point in their careers.
Only 2 percent reported using flexible work arrangements that limited employment to part time.
About 85 percent were responsible for at least half the household income.Real Estate Still a Flexible OptionStill, “women leave corporate America because it’s so rigid,” Shapiro says. That's why so many opt for real estate, which she says is probably the first career in which women acted as self agents. And until organizations change, she adds, career paths such as real estate will remain a popular choice. — By Camilla McLaughlin for REALTOR® Magazine Online

Realty Check by Richard Courtney

2007-01-08T12:45:00.000-08:00

I was reading the latest edition of our local "Nashville City Paper" and read what Mr. Courtney thinks we will see in the coming year!

Realty Check: Nashville’s ’07 real estate scene looks bright

By Richard CourtneyJanuary 05, 2007

As I slumbered this night just passed, I received a vision of all things real estate that will occur in 2007. I know these things to be true as they were verified by a very small woman singing outside my window pane.

I have seen that interest rates will remain low, never topping 7 percent, but never dropping lower than 5.5 percent. With the rates remaining at these low numbers, the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors will report record numbers again for 2007.While the record growth will continue, it will do so in a strange and bizarre fashion. For example, in several months, single-family home sales will be down from the number of the previous year, and condominium sales will be higher than those of 2006. Not surprisingly, as the market stabilizes, there will be more volatility than in previous years with five months recording lower sales and seven months experiencing record growth. However, for the year, sales will be up 2.654 percent.

New home construction will slow to a very manageable rate, and the 160 units at Bristol on Broadway will close without fanfare — albeit sending condo sales growth to a level of more than 20 percent higher than last year’s pace. The most exciting news is that construction will begin on the 70-story Signature Tower, providing Nashville with the South’s tallest skyscraper. Additionally, Tony Giarratana will announce plans for an 80-story building for Dickson. Mark McDonald, a newcomer to the high-rise, mid-rise trend in Nashville, will announce a project that will raise some bushy eyebrows. Green Hills paramedics should be on standby.And Belle Meade will “build high” as upper-, upper-end luxury condos will pierce its virgin skies.

The trademark horses will dance with the moon and the stars. Open those pocketbooks — this is no place for Mary Hance.Mayor Bill Purcell will be re-elected with an unprecedented write-in campaign, which Karl Dean will rule is illegal and he will then dub himself mayor only to be sued by David Briley and Buck Dozier. Bob Clement will take office based on all he did in Congress a few years back. Howard Gentry Jr. will be the real winner by losing. If that is confusing, just watch what happens.What a year! The irony of it all is that 2008 will be even wackier, but I’ll save that for another day.Richard Courtney is the principal broker of Fridrich and Clark Realty’s Music Row office.

http://nashvillecitypaper.com

Nashville market

2006-12-28T09:13:00.000-08:00

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!

What trends are coming?

The Nashville market has been steady most of the year compared to many other markets throughout the country.

Stay tuned to see the upcoming trends of the year. Check back to see where we are going.

Welcome to my new blog

2006-11-24T22:55:00.000-08:00

Welcome to my new blog!